HoYoverse prints the exact numbers inside the game, on the Details screen next to every banner. On a Character Event Wish the base 5-star rate is 0.600%, the consolidated rate including the guarantee is 1.600%, and a 5-star is guaranteed at least once per 90 attempts. On the weapon banner those figures are 0.700%, 1.850% and 80 attempts. The words "pity" and "soft pity" appear nowhere in the official rules — only base probability, consolidated probability and a hard threshold.
You can verify all of it in ten seconds: open a wish and tap Details in the bottom-left corner.
Short answer
- A 5-star is guaranteed within 90 wishes on character banners and 80 on the weapon banner; any 5-star resets the counter.
- The first 5-star on a banner is the promotional one 50% of the time; lose that roll and the next one is guaranteed.
- Capturing Radiance lifts the consolidated chance of the promotional character from 50% to 55%.
- Character Event Wish and Character Event Wish-2 share a counter; the weapon and standard banners do not.
- One wish is 160 Primogems, so an average 5-star costs roughly 10,000.
What HoYoverse publishes, and what players inferred
Separating those two layers early saves most of the arguments, because the arguments are always about the second one.
Officially each banner comes with three numbers: the base drop rate on a clean wish, the consolidated rate including guarantees averaged across the full distance, and a hard threshold in attempts. Plus the rules for the 50/50, Capturing Radiance and the Epitomized Path, written out in plain sentences.
Unofficially there is soft pity — the observation that the rate spikes as you approach the threshold. The Genshin Impact Wiki says so explicitly: "pity," "banner" and "soft pity" are unofficial terms, and the effect itself was derived by players from large samples of wish history. The usual estimates put it around wish 74 on character and standard banners and around wish 63 on the weapon banner.
The distinction is practical. The hard threshold is a commitment you can budget against. Soft pity is a model that fits the data well but is not documented anywhere.
The official rates, banner by banner
Figures taken from the live Details pages in September 2026. Rates for a banner type do not change between versions — only the characters and weapons inside them do.
| Banner | Base 5★ rate | Consolidated | Hard threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Character Event Wish | 0.600% | 1.600% | 90 |
| Character Event Wish-2 | 0.600% | 1.600% | 90 |
| Weapon Event Wish | 0.700% | 1.850% | 80 |
| Wanderlust Invocation | 0.600% | 1.600% | 90 |
Four-stars run on their own counter. On the character banner the base 4-star rate is 5.100% and the consolidated rate 13.000%, with a 4-star or better guaranteed at least once per 10 attempts; on the weapon banner it is 6.000%, 14.500% and the same 10.
A detail almost nobody reads: the 10-wish guarantee pays out a 4-star 99.400% of the time and a 5-star 0.600% of the time. A "tenth pull" can genuinely close on a 5-star, and that is written into the rules.
Four-stars have their own version of the 50/50 too — the first 4-star on a character banner is one of the three featured characters half the time, and if it is not, the next 4-star is guaranteed to be featured. On the weapon banner that share is 75% across five featured weapons. Featured 4-stars are equally likely among themselves, so you cannot steer toward the one you want.
Wanderlust Invocation differs from an event banner only in having no featured slot: its 0.600% base rate splits evenly, 0.300% for characters and 0.300% for weapons.
How the 50/50 and Capturing Radiance work
The 50/50 takes two sentences in the official rules.
The first 5-star character you win on the banner is the promotional one with a 50.000% probability. If it is not the promotional one, the next 5-star character on that banner is guaranteed to be.
Capturing Radiance sits on top of that. When the guarantee is not active, winning a 5-star can trigger the mechanic and convert a random character into the promotional one. Its base trigger rate is 0.018%, but including it, the consolidated chance that a 5-star is the promotional character rises to 55.000%.
It also has a hard clause. If the promotional character is only your second 5-star on three consecutive occasions, Capturing Radiance is guaranteed to trigger the next time you win a 5-star.
Put together, the consolidated probability of winning the promotional character specifically — guarantee and Capturing Radiance included — is 1.103%.
Winning a 50/50 promises nothing about the future: the next 5-star is rolled under the same rules again. The guarantee exists only after a loss.
What carries over between banners, and what burns?
The counter carries. Fate Points burn.
The character counter is shared between Character Event Wish and Character Event Wish-2 — the rules say it accumulates across both and is independent of the counters for other wish types. Spend 60 on one and switch to the other, and you continue from 60.
It also survives version changes. A banner closes, a new character arrives, and your accumulated count comes with you. So does a guarantee earned by losing a 50/50.
Weapon and standard counters are separate. None of the three feeds another.
Any 5-star resets the counter. Not the featured one — any, including a random standard-pool character. "Ten to go until 90" stops being true the moment anything 5-star appears.
Fate Points do not carry. They live inside the current Epitome Invocation period and reset with it.
The weapon banner: 80, 75/25 and the Epitomized Path
The weapon banner is harsher on paper and more predictable in practice.
The threshold is 80 rather than 90 and the base rate is higher, at 0.700%. The first 5-star weapon is one of the two promotional ones 75.000% of the time; if it is not, the next 5-star weapon is guaranteed to be. The consolidated chance of getting one of the two featured weapons is 1.480%.
The real problem is not the threshold — it is that there are two promotional weapons. The Epitomized Path is the answer to that.
It works like this. You chart a course toward one of the two weapons. If a 5-star weapon drops and it is not your chosen one, you gain 1 Fate Point. At maximum Fate Points, the next 5-star weapon is guaranteed to be your choice. Once you obtain it, the points reset to zero.
Three traps are spelled out in the same rules. Without charting a course, you accrue no Fate Points at all. Changing or cancelling your choice resets them. And when the wish period ends, they reset as well.
What does one 5-star actually cost?
About ten thousand Primogems on average, 14,400 in the worst case.
A single wish costs 160 Primogems. The consolidated 5-star rate on the character banner is 1.600%, which is one 5-star per 62.5 wishes. Multiply it out: 62.5 × 160 = 10,000 Primogems.
The worst case is the same arithmetic: 90 wishes × 160 = 14,400 Primogems.
And if you specifically need the promotional character and land in the bad branch with a lost 50/50, budget for two thresholds back to back — up to 180 wishes, or 28,800 Primogems.
For scale, four daily commissions pay 60 Primogems a day and 1,800 a month. That is where the feeling of saving forever comes from: you are saving forever. Every stable source is listed in the free Primogems guide, and the one-off livestream codes are covered in the breakdown of the official redemption page.
What usually goes wrong
Assuming 90 accumulates toward a specific character. Symptom: a random 5-star appears and the counter zeroes out. Cause: the threshold counts from the last 5-star of any kind. Fix: count from your last 5-star, not from the start of the banner.
Believing a won 50/50 protects the next one. Symptom: two non-featured 5-stars in a row. Cause: the guarantee exists only after a loss; a win carries nothing. Fix: budget for two thresholds, not one.
Pulling on the weapon banner without charting a course. Symptom: the other weapon drops and there are no Fate Points. Cause: without a chosen weapon, points do not accrue at all. Fix: set the target before the first wish, not after.
Changing the chosen weapon "just in case." Symptom: accumulated Fate Points vanish. Cause: changing or cancelling resets them. Fix: choose once and leave it alone until the weapon arrives.
Expecting character pity to help on the weapon banner. Symptom: 70 wishes deep on characters, and weapons start from zero. Cause: the three counters are independent. Fix: save toward one banner rather than toward wishes in general.
If you have not settled on who to pull for, which Genshin character are you narrows it to an element and a role, and what it takes to build them afterwards is in the resin guide and the ascension materials guide. Starting from scratch, begin with the beginner guide; the rest sits on the Genshin Impact hub.
FAQ
After how many wishes is a 5-star guaranteed?
At most 90 attempts on the character and standard banners, and 80 on the weapon banner. Those are HoYoverse's own words on the in-game Details page. The counter resets on any 5-star, not only the featured one.
Is soft pity official?
No. HoYoverse publishes only the base rate, the consolidated rate and the hard threshold. The observation that the rate jumps around wish 74 on character banners and wish 63 on weapon banners comes from players analysing large samples of wish history, not from documentation.
Does pity carry over between banners?
Yes, within the same wish type. Character Event Wish and Character Event Wish-2 share one counter. The weapon counter and the standard counter are separate. Fate Points carry over nowhere and reset when the banner period ends.
What is Capturing Radiance?
A mechanic that can turn a lost 50/50 into a win. Its base trigger rate is 0.018%, but including it the consolidated chance that a 5-star is the promotional character rises to 55%. If the promotional character is only your second 5-star on three consecutive occasions, the mechanic is guaranteed to trigger next time.
How many Primogems does one 5-star cost?
A wish costs 160 Primogems and the consolidated 5-star rate on the character banner is 1.600%, roughly one per 62.5 wishes. That works out to about 10,000 Primogems on average and 14,400 in the worst case, at wish 90.
Sources
- HoYoverse: Character Event Wish rules (the in-game Details page, September 2026)
- HoYoverse: Epitome Invocation rules and the Epitomized Path
- HoYoverse: Wanderlust Invocation standard wish rules
- HoYoverse: index of live wishes — use it to find the current rules page
- Genshin Impact Wiki: Wish — counter behaviour and the unofficial status of soft pity
- Genshin Impact Wiki: Primogem — Fate cost and Primogem sources
- Genshin Impact official site